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This experimental vignette study examined how student performance, gender, the subject of academic failure, and teachers’ attitudes toward grade retention influence promotion decisions. A total of N = 146 pre-service and in-service teachers each evaluated 12 fictional student profiles varying by grade point average (GPA: poor vs. very poor), failing subject (language vs. math/science), and student gender. Teachers also completed a 16-item questionnaire on attitudes toward grade retention. Generalized estimating equation analyses revealed that poorer academic performance substantially increased the likelihood of recommending retention, and failure in a language subject was judged more critically than failure in math/science. Moreover, a gender × subject interaction indicated that female students were more likely to be retained when failing in mathematics, suggesting the influence of gender stereotypes. Teachers’ pro-retention attitudes independently predicted more frequent retention recommendations, whereas professional status (pre-service vs. in-service) had no effect. These findings supported our predictions regarding academic performance (H1), subject domain (H3), and teacher attitudes (H5), provided partial support for the anticipated gender-by-subject interaction (H4), and showed no significant effect of student gender (H2). These results highlight that while teachers emphasize academic criteria, their judgments remain subtly shaped by subject-specific gender stereotypes and individual beliefs. Implications for teacher education and educational policy are discussed.
