When competence and confidence are at odds: a cross-country examination of the Dunning–Kruger effect

• Autores: Kajsa Yang Hansen, Cecilia Thorsen, Jelena Radisic, Francisco Peixoto, Anu Laine, Xun Liu
• Localización: European Journal of Psychology of Education, ISSN-e 1878-5174, ISSN 0256-2928, Vol. 39, Nº 2, 2024, págs. 1537-1559
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.1007/s10212-024-00804-x
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen

  • Research has shown that some students who underperform in mathematics overestimate their performance, while others who excel in mathematics underestimate it. Looking at this mismatch of performance and confidence judgement—the Dunning–Kruger effect (DKE)—the current study investigates how well students’ confidence judgement and item-specific mathematics competence relate with each other and whether such a relationship differs across six European countries (i.e., Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Serbia and Portugal). We also examine whether perceived competence, mathematics identity, gender, socioeconomic status and immigration background predict this mismatch and whether these demographic factors function differently between the examined countries. The results show that the DKE could be found across grades three and four in all six countries. However, there are country-specific patterns regarding the relationship between performance, mathematics identity and perceived competence; the DKE; and how different demographic variables predict its occurrences in particular subpopulations.

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • Andrade, H. L. (2019). A critical review of research on student self-assessment. Frontiers in Education, 4(87). https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2019.00087
  • Boekaerts, M., & Rozendaal, J. S. (2010). Using multiple calibration indices in order to capture the complex picture of what affects students’...
  • Brown, G. T., & Harris, L. R. (2013). Student self-assessment. In J. H. McMillan (Ed.), SAGE handbook of research on classroom assessment...
  • Christopher, K. I., Padmakumari, P., & Herbert, H. S. (2023). Presence or absence of Dunning-Kruger effect: Differences in narcissism,...
  • Coutinho, M.V.C., Thomas, J., Alsuwaidi, A. S. M., & Couchman, J.J., (2021). Dunning-Kruger effect: Intuitive errors predict overconfidence...
  • Dapp, L. C., & Roebers, C. M. (2021). Metacognition and self-concept: Elaborating on a construct relation in first-grade children. PLoS...
  • Darragh, L. (2016). Identity research in mathematics education. Educational Studies in Mathematics, 93(1), 19–33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10649-016-9696-5
  • De Bruin, A. B. H., Kok, E., Lobbestael, J., & De Grip, A. (2017). The impact of an online tool for monitoring and regulating learning...
  • Dunning, D. (2011). The Dunning-Kruger effect: On being ignorant of one’s own ignorance. In J. Olson & M. P. Zanna (Eds.), Advances in...
  • Dunning, D. (2015). On identifying human capital: Flawed knowledge leads to faulty judgementss of expertise by individuals and groups. In...
  • Dunning, D., Johnson, K., Ehrlinger, J., & Kruger, J. (2003). Why people fail to recognise their own incompetence. Current Directions...
  • Eccles, J. (2009). Who am I and what am I going to do with my life? Personal and collective identities as motivators of action. Educational...
  • Eccles, J. S., & Wigfield, A. (2020). From expectancy-value theory to situated expectancy-value theory: A developmental, social cognitive,...
  • Efklides, A. (2006). Metacognition and affect: What can metacognitive experiences tell us about the learning process? Educational Research...
  • Efklides, A. (2008). Metacognition: Defining its facets and levels of functioning in relation to self-regulation and co-regulation. European...
  • Efklides, A. (2011). Interactions of metacognition with motivation and affect in self-regulated learning: The MASRL model. Educational Psychologist,...
  • Ehrlinger, J., & Dunning, D. A. (2003). How chronic self-views influence (and mislead) estimates of performance. Journal of Personality...
  • Ehrlinger, J., Johnson, K., Banner, M., Dunning, D., & Kruger, J. (2008). Why the unskilled are unaware: Further explorations of (absent)...
  • Epstein, R. M., Siegel, D. J., & Silberman, J. (2008). Self-monitoring in clinical practice: A challenge for medical educators. Journal...
  • Erickson, S., & Heit, E. (2015). Metacognition and confidence: Comparing math to other academic subjects. Frontiers in Psychology, 6,...
  • Ernst, H. M., Wittwer, J., & Voss, T. (2023). Do they know what they know? Accuracy in teacher candidates’ self-assessments and its influencing...
  • Geraci, L., Kurpad, N., Tirso, R., Gray, K. N., & Wang, Y. (2023). Metacognitive errors in the classroom: The role of variability of past...
  • Gignac, G. E., & Zajenkowski, M. (2020). The Dunning-Kruger effect is (mostly) a statistical artefact: Valid approaches to testing the...
  • Gilovich, T., Griffin, D., & Kahneman, D. (2002). Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgements. Cambridge University...
  • Guillory, J. J., & Blankson, A. N. (2017). Using recently acquired knowledge to self-assess understanding in the classroom. Scholarship...
  • Holling, H., & Preckel, F. (2005). Self-estimates of intelligence––Methodological approaches and gender differences. Personality and Individual...
  • Hosein, A., & Harle, J. (2018). The relationship between students’ prior mathematical attainment, knowledge and confidence on their self-assessment...
  • Kleitman, S., & Stankov, L. (2007). Self-confidence and metacognitive processes. Learning and Individual Differences, 17(2), 161–173....
  • Kleitman, S., Hui, J. S. W., & Jiang, Y. (2019). Confidence to spare: Individual differences in cognitive and metacognitive arrogance...
  • Komarraju, M., & Nadler, D. (2013). Self-efficacy and academic achievement: Why do implicit beliefs, goals, and effort regulation matter?...
  • Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognising one’s own incompetence lead to inflated...
  • Magnus, J. R., & Peresetsky, A. A. (2022). A statistical explanation of the Dunning-Kruger effect. Frontiers in Psychology, 13, 840180....
  • Marks, M. B., Haug, J. C., & Hu, H. (2018). Investigating undergraduate business internships: Do supervisor and self-evaluations differ?...
  • McIntosh, R. D., Fowler, E. A., Lyu, T., & Della Sala, S. (2019). Wise up: Clarifying the role of metacognition in the Dunning-Kruger...
  • Miller, R. S., & Wang, M. (2019). Cultivating adolescents’ academic identity: Ascertaining the mediating effects of motivational beliefs...
  • Morony, S., Kleitman, S., Lee, Y. P., & Stankov, L. (2013). Predicting achievement: Confidence vs self-efficacy, anxiety, and self-concept...
  • Nagel, M., & Lindsey, B. (2018). The use of classroom clickers to support improved self-assessment in introductory chemistry. Journal...
  • OECD. (2015). The ABC of gender equality in education: Aptitude, behaviour, confidence. PISA, OECD Publishing.
  • Panadero, E., Brown, G. T., & Strijbos, J. W. (2016). The future of student self-assessment: A review of known unknowns and potential...
  • Parker, A. M., Bruine de Bruin, W., Yoong, J., & Willis, R. (2012). Inappropriate confidence and retirement planning: Four studies with...
  • Peixoto, F., Radišić, J., Krstić, K., Hansen, K. Y., Laine, A., Baucal, A., Sõrmus, M., & Mata, L. (2023). Contribution to the validation...
  • Pekrun, R. (2006). The control-value theory of achievement emotions: Assumptions, corollaries, and implications for educational research and...
  • Pitkänen, H. (2023). Reflektoiva oppilas suomalaisessa perusopetuksen opetussuunnitelmallisessa arviointidiskurssissa [A reflective student...
  • Sanchez, C., & Dunning, D. (2018). Overconfidence among beginners: Is a little learning a dangerous thing? Journal of Personality and...
  • Schlösser, T., Dunning, D., Johnson, K. L., & Kruger, J. (2013). How unaware are the unskilled? Empirical tests of the “signal extraction”...
  • Serra, M. J., & DeMarree, K. G. (2016). Unskilled and unaware in the classroom: College students’ desired grades predict their biased...
  • Sheldon, J. O., Ames, R. D., & Dunning, D. (2014). Emotionally unskilled, unaware, and uninterested in learning more: Reactions to feedback...
  • Stankov, L. (2019). Applied metacognition and separation of confidence and accuracy in correlational studies. Metacognition and Learning,...
  • Stankov, L., & Lee, J. (2008). Confidence and cognitive test performance. Journal of Educational Psychology, 100(4), 961–976. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0012546
  • Stankov, L., & Lee, J. (2014). Overconfidence across world regions. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 45(5), 821–837. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022022114527345
  • Stankov, L., & Lee, J. (2017). Self-beliefs: Strong correlates of mathematics achievement and intelligence. Intelligence, 61, 11–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2016.12.001
  • Stankov, L., Lee, J., Luo, W., & Hogan, D. J. (2012). Confidence: A better predictor of academic achievement than self-efficacy, self-concept...
  • Stankov, L., Morony, S., & Lee, Y. P. (2014). Confidence: The best non-cognitive predictor of academic achievement? Educational Psychology,...
  • Stankov, L. (1999). Mining on the “no man’s land” between intelligence and personality. In P. L. Ackerman, P. C. Kyllonen, & R. D. Roberts...
  • Sullivan, P. J., Ragogna, M., & Dithurbide, L. (2019). An investigation into the Dunning-Kruger effect in sport coaching. International...
  • Tashiro, J., Parga, D., Pollard, J., & Talanquer, V. (2021). Characterising change in students’ self-assessments of understanding when...
  • Thawabieh, A. M. (2017). A comparison between students’ self-assessment and teachers’ assessment. Journal of Curriculum and Teaching, 6(1),...
  • Vincent-Ruz, P. & Schunn, C. D. (2018). The nature of science identity and its role as the driver of student choices. International Journal...
  • Vonkova, H., Papajoanu, O., Stipek, J., & Kralova, K. (2021). Identifying the accuracy of and exaggeration in self-reports of ICT knowledge...
  • Walkowiak, S., Coutrot, A., Hegarty, M., Velasco, P. F., Wiener, J. M., Dalton, R. C., Hölscher, C., Hornberger, M., Spiers, H. J., &...
  • Williams, T., & Williams, K. (2010). Self-efficacy and performance in mathematics: Reciprocal determinism in 33 nations. Journal of Educational...
  • Wollenschläger, M., Hattie, J., Machts, N., Möller, J., & Harms, U. (2016). What makes rubrics effective in teacher-feedback? Transparency...
  • Zell, E., & Krizan, Z. (2014). Do people have insight into their abilities? A Metasynthesis. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 9(2),...