Acceso usuarios
J.P. Caulkins
The author of the present article makes three points. Firstly, drug-related measures, such as the number of users, have changed rapidly over time, suggesting that they are not merely symptoms of underlying trends in the economy, demographics or other aggregates that change more slowly over time. Secondly, drug markets are subject to a wide range of feedback effects that can induce non-linearity into dynamic behaviour. Thirdly, there are at least five classes of drug epidemic models that reflect such non-linear dynamic behaviour. Some of those classes tend to be optimistic about the ability of drug control interventions to reduce use; others are pessimistic. It is hoped that the present article and, in particular, the typology, will inform and elevate the debate about drug policy, though it is unlikely to resolve that debate because of the inability to demonstrate empirically which classes of model is (are) more accurate.
