Resumen de A policy-based weighted averaging model to predict green vehicle market shares

Olivier Mairesse, Laurence Turcksin, Cathy Macharis

• This paper investigates the effect of single and combined pricing measures on the potential shift from intended purchase of conventionally fuelled vehicles to environmentally friendly ones. First, a factorial judgment task was designed to elicit the combinatory rule that governs the integration of different pricing policies into judgments of probability of switching to an environmentally friendly vehicle. Our results show that individuals convey these judgments mainly according to an equal weights averaging rule. Next, contingent valuation methodology was applied in a large-scale vignette study to estimate market shares of environmentally friendly vehicles given different single pricing policies. Total potential market shares for environmentally friendly vehicles for combined pricing policies were subsequently modeled according to a weighted average of “market scale values” based on the best-fitted functions of willingness-to-pay cumulative frequencies and “policy weight values” elicited through a direct rating procedure. The resulting model enables policy makers to calculate the switch to environmentally friendly vehicles at any hypothetical price level for different pricing policy packages.