Evaluación de los efectos de la intervención en diseños de series temporales en presencia de tendencias

• Guillermo Vallejo Seco ^[1]
  1. [1] Universidad de Oviedo

     Universidad de Oviedo

     Oviedo, España

     
• Localización: Psicothema, ISSN-e 1886-144X, ISSN 0214-9915, Vol. 6, Nº. 3, 1994, págs. 503-524
• Idioma: español
• Enlaces
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• Dialnet Métricas: 4 Citas
• Resumen

  • La solución comúnmente practicada para abordar el problema de la dependencia serial ha consistido en emplear el modelamiento ARIMA originalmente propuesto por Box y Tiao (1965). Con todo, el elevado número de puntuaciones exigido por el modelo para su correcta identificación, conlleva que el enfoque vea restringida su aplicación en muchos ámbitos sociocomportamentales. Para superar este handicap diversos investigadores (Harrop y Velicer, 1985: 1990) han sugerido eliminar la problemática fase de identificación en aras de algún modelo asumido de antemano. Los resultados actuales parecen obstinarse en poner de manifiesto que las diferencias encontradas por nosotros (Vallejo y otros, 1992) en cuanto a la eficiencia de los estimadores de las distintas rutinas de análisis, no sólo no desaparecen a medida que complicamos los modelos desde los cuales las series son generadas, sino que se empeora.

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