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The contact hypothesis proposes that positive intergroup encounters can causally improve intergroup attitudes, and its tenants have informed prejudice reduction efforts across the globe. Most support for the hypothesis is correlational, as it is assumed that correlations (partially) reflect a pattern whereby increases in positive intergroup contact cause increases in intergroup warmth. In the present article we interrogate this assumption. Latent growth class analysis can group people showing similar patterns of change over time into classes. We use this method to enumerate what percentage of people report co-occurring increases in intergroup contact and warmth over time. Using preexisting data sets, we examined starting points and trajectories of positive intergroup contact (Studies 1 and 2) and cross-group friendship (3 and 4). We drew on samples of adults from New Zealand (Study 1, N = 15,384) and Germany (Study 2, N = 2,726; Study 4, N = 1,667), and a sample of adolescents from the Netherlands (Study 3, N = 2,949). Fourteen intergroup contexts were examined. Results revealed contact varied markedly between persons; people were consistently grouped into classes characterized by high versus low levels of intergroup contact. Critically, however, few people reported substantive increases in intergroup contact. Instead, people reported relatively stable levels of intergroup contact across periods of up to 5 years. No single class emerged in which contact increased, and attitudes changed from negative to positive. One of the four studies found classes characterized by very small co-occurring increases in positive contact and intergroup warmth. We conclude with a discussion on the role of contact in our contemporary world. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved)
