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Is low self-esteem a risk factor for depression, and do experiences of depression deteriorate an individual’s self-esteem? In this preregistered study, we used continuous time modeling to investigate how prospective effects between self-esteem and depression change as a function of the time interval over which the effects are observed. Analyses were based on data from six measurement waves of the Longitudinal Study of Generations, covering a period of 17 years in total. The sample included 2,854 individuals (53% female) aged 16–102 years. Self-esteem and depression were modeled as latent constructs to control for measurement error. Moreover, the models also controlled for stable between-person differences in the constructs. The results indicated that low self-esteem significantly predicted an increase in depression, but that depression did not predict later self-esteem. The effect of self-esteem on depression reached its maximum at a time interval of approximately 2 years, with a standardized cross-lagged effect of −.09. The effect remained significant for a time interval up to 10 years and held for gender and across generations. Moreover, the effect held for three specific factors of depression (i.e., depressed affect, lack of positive affect, and interpersonal difficulties). However, the effect was not found for the depression factor of somatic complaints. The findings provide support for the vulnerability model, which proposes that low self-esteem is a risk factor for depression. Moreover, the findings suggest that this vulnerability effect is best studied over a time course of several years. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved)
